Timeline Tracker: Built to Last, Tested by Time, Designed for Your Future

This article is produced by us for Financial Advisers who may choose to share it with their clients. Timeline Planning and Timeline Portfolios do not offer direct-to-consumer products.

Retirement isn’t a destination — it’s a journey. And like any good journey, the road ahead can be smooth or bumpy, predictable or full of surprises. The real question isn’t “What will markets do next year?” — it’s “Will my portfolio keep me going, no matter what the world throws at me?”

That’s exactly the question we set out to answer with Timeline Tracker portfolios.

The Big Test: What Happens When You Time-Travel Through 100+ Years of Markets?

To understand how well Tracker portfolios stand up to the real world, we took them on a ride through history, from 1915 to 2023. That includes world wars, recessions, recoveries, tech booms, oil shocks, pandemics, and everything in between.

We ran each portfolio through rolling 25-, 30-, 35-, and 40-year periods, simulating the experience of real retirees across generations.

We weren’t just looking for flashy returns. We asked the deeper question:

Can this portfolio keep funding your lifestyle — year after year — without running out of fuel? 

The Method: More Than Just Numbers

This wasn’t guesswork or cherry-picking bull markets. Our test drive was data-driven, real-world, and grounded in how people actually live in retirement:

• Realistic spending patterns, adjusted for inflation
  
  
• UK state pension included as a core income source
  
  
• Fees and costs factored in (DFM 0.09%, fund OCF 0.09%)
  
  
• Annual withdrawals = spending needs minus the inflation-linked state pension
  
  

Put simply, this wasn’t a theoretical model — this was financial stress testing, done right.

What Does “Success” Look Like?

We measured Success Rates — how often a portfolio could keep funding withdrawals without running dry. And we looked at three kinds of scenarios:

• Worst-Case: When markets tank and stay down. Could the portfolio still hold up?
  
  
• Median Case: The “typical” ride. Not too hot, not too cold.
  
  
• Best-Case: The wind-at-your-back scenario — strong markets, strong growth, strong outcomes.
  
  

But most importantly, we used those results to match the right engine (portfolio) to the right driver (client).

Matching Tracker Portfolios to Your Clients’ Financial Journeys

Whether your client is cautiously cruising or chasing the horizon, there’s a Tracker portfolio designed to meet them where they are.

 The Safety-First Driver

(Tracker & Classic 0–20)
“I want predictability. No surprises.”

These clients don’t want to race. They want to coast smoothly, even if it means driving slower. Stability matters more than speed.

• Tracker/Classic 0: Reliable for spending rates of 3.5–4%, but may need adjustment if the journey stretches past 30 years.
  
  
• Tracker/Classic 20: Adds a bit more horsepower, sustaining up to 4.5% for 35–40 years.

Balanced Cruiser

(Tracker & Classic 40–60)
“I need some growth — but I don’t want a rollercoaster.”

Think of these clients as driving a reliable hybrid. They want to go the distance, but they also want to enjoy the ride.

• Tracker/Classic 40: Comfortably supports 4.5–5% spending, with a smooth balance of risk and reward.
  
  
• Tracker/Classic 60: Built for longer hauls — sustaining 5% across all time horizons, even in stormy weather.
  
  

Best fit: Clients who want inflation-beating growth without giving up a sense of control. Pre-retirees and cautious optimists.

The Growth-Seeker

(Tracker & Classic 80–100)
“I want to go far — and fast.”

These are your clients who see volatility as a feature, not a bug. They’re planning for a long journey, and they want a vehicle that can handle speed, hills, and the occasional pothole.

• Tracker/Classic 80: Over 90% success rate at 5.5% withdrawals, even over 40-year retirements.
  
  
• Tracker/Classic 100: The top-end engine supports 6% withdrawals, but demands comfort with market turbulence.
  
  

Best fit: Younger retirees, wealthy clients, or those who’d rather risk short-term bumps for long-term acceleration.

Understanding the Dashboard: Success Rate (SSR) Key

•  80%+: Built to last — these portfolios handled the journey in most scenarios.
  
  
• 50–79%: Mixed terrain — may need some flexibility in spending.
  
  
• Below 50%: Caution ahead — careful planning and backup needed.
  
  

The Bottom Line: One Journey, Many Paths

Every retirement is different — and that’s the point. Whether your client’s road is short and flat or long and winding, Timeline Tracker portfolios are engineered to help them arrive with confidence.

Here’s what we found:

Final Thought: Are Your Clients in the Right Vehicle?

A beautifully engineered car means nothing without the right driver. The same goes for portfolios.

• Conservative investors can cruise through retirement with minimal volatility.
• Balanced investors get the best of both worlds — durability and growth.
• Growth-oriented investors unlock long-term potential, with portfolios built for distance and acceleration.

No matter the destination, Timeline Tracker portfolios are built for the journey, with over a century of historical insight packed under the hood.

 One More Note on “Spending Rate” vs “Withdrawal Rate”

Think of the spending rate as the total cost of the road trip. But since the UK state pension covers part of the fuel, the actual withdrawal rate (what’s drawn from the portfolio) is the remainder. We account for that difference — and adjust everything for inflation — so clients always know what their portfolio truly needs to deliver.

This article is produced by us for Financial Advisers who may choose to share it with their clients. Timeline Planning and Timeline Portfolios do not offer direct-to-consumer products.