In a year dominated by political change, global tensions, and economic uncertainty, advisers face a familiar challenge — keeping clients focused on the bigger picture. While headlines may drive short-term anxiety, history shows that markets have a remarkable ability to recover and reward those who stay invested.
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Geopolitical uncertainty is here to stay — but so is market resilience
From the global election supercycle to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, 2024 has underscored how unpredictable the geopolitical landscape can be. For advisers, the challenge lies not in predicting every twist and turn, but in helping clients maintain discipline in the face of uncertainty.
With over 40% of the world’s population voting this year, accounting for more than 80% of global market capitalisation, politics is in the spotlight. Yet historical market trends show steady growth regardless of who occupies Downing Street or the Oval Office. While election years tend to bring volatility early on, clarity usually restores market confidence.
Beyond the headlines: the bigger risks
The list of geopolitical flashpoints is long. Trade tensions between the US and China, a war in Ukraine with no clear end in sight, escalating conflict in Gaza, and the rise of cyberattacks all have the potential to disrupt markets.
However, data from past geopolitical “shock events” shows that while markets often dip in the short term, they frequently recover within 12 months. As the Financial Times notes, long-term investors who remain steady tend to fare best. The lesson for advisers? Focus on what can be controlled — diversification, disciplined rebalancing, and ensuring portfolios are stress-tested against a range of historical scenarios.
Helping clients focus on the long term
Advisers play a critical role in keeping clients grounded when news headlines drive anxiety. At Timeline, our stress-testing tools simulate portfolio performance through world wars, pandemics, and economic downturns — giving clients confidence that their plan can withstand even the most extreme events.
Markets may not be immune to shocks, but history shows they are remarkably resilient. For long-term investors, staying the course remains the most powerful strategy.
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