Some families are now making decisions about end-of-life treatment with one eye on the pension IHT cliff edge. That is not a hypothetical. Advisers are hearing it from real clients, right now, ahead of April 2026. This edition of SoapBox does not look away from that.
Abraham Okusanya and Matt Pitcher are joined by Lauren Turner, Head of Financial Planning and Chartered Financial Planner at TFP Financial Planning, for a SoapBox that covers the SpaceX IPO myth, the pension IHT ticking clock, and a deepfake fraud wave that is already costing UK investors hundreds of millions.
The SpaceX Panic That Doesn't Add Up
The SpaceX IPO has been the largest in history. It has also generated some of the most poorly reasoned commentary in recent memory. The headline claim, that index investors are being used as forced buyers, absorbing an overpriced stock at any cost, does not survive contact with the data.
Abraham walks through the numbers. S&P 500 is not changing its profitability rules to let SpaceX in, at least not for another year. MSCI has made no changes. FTSE Russell and Morningstar have tweaked their rules but the float-adjusted reality is stark: with only around five percent of SpaceX's capitalisation currently available to trade, the stock will not even crack the top one hundred holdings in a total market index on entry. For Mrs. Miggins in a balanced portfolio, Abraham's estimate is roughly £1 in every £100 of exposure, even at maturity.
"Whether the stock goes in on day five or day twelve, understand the rules. I would avoid trying to game it or change your portfolio because of this. It just goes against indexing."
Abraham OkusanyaLauren notes the useful educational opportunity buried in the noise: most clients who think they own "all world shares" have little idea how different index rules produce very different portfolios. Matt agrees, adding that some clients have gone directly to retail platforms to buy the IPO at launch price, and as of recording, they are looking quite comfortable. The point is not whether SpaceX is a good investment. It is that indexing is not broken, and advisers should be confident saying so.
Pension IHT: The Cliff Edge No One Can Ignore
From April 2026, unused pension funds will form part of a deceased client's estate for inheritance tax purposes. Most advisers know this. What some are not yet prepared for is the human reality of what the cliff edge is already producing.
Matt reports that his firm, and others anecdotally, are aware of families weighing end-of-life treatment decisions against the April date. A twelve-month life extension versus a six-figure tax difference for the children. That is the conversation happening in some households right now.
"There are families who are forgoing life-prolonging treatment because of where the cliff edge on the fifth of April falls. That's really hard."
Matt PitcherLauren's view is that "bring it to the front of the queue" is a lazy response. The real planning opportunity lies in encouraging clients to spend and enjoy their wealth now, to think about giving with warm hands rather than cold ones, and to work through the trust and gifting options that have become more relevant overnight. She is also watching closely how the industry will administer the mechanics of paying the tax on inherited pension funds, which she expects to be considerably more complicated than the legislation implies.
Abraham takes what he acknowledges is an unpopular position: the overall direction of the change is right, because it forces a planning conversation that the profession has been deferring for years. He does not defend the double taxation problem that Matt outlines, where pension beneficiaries may face both income tax and inheritance tax on the same pot. That, he agrees, needs to be corrected. But forcing families and advisers to actually plan around intergenerational wealth is a feature, not a bug.
Deepfakes: The Fraud Wave Already Hitting Your Clients
Matt brings the numbers on deepfake fraud, and they are extraordinary. In 2025, losses attributed specifically to AI-generated impersonation, video, audio and image, totalled $1.1 billion globally. The projection for 2026 is $40 billion. That is not a typo. It is a J-curve, and the profession is only just beginning to understand its implications.
In the UK, investment fraud is the single largest category of deepfake losses, accounting for £122 million of a total £150 million lost. The most striking case Matt cites involved an accounts assistant on a Microsoft Teams call with who appeared to be the CEO, CFO and their department head. All three were AI-generated. The assistant transferred approximately $200 million to a third party. The only human in the meeting was the victim.
"I find myself scrolling through news going, is that really real? I should be smart enough to know, but I'm really doubting my ability to judge what is real and what's not."
Lauren TurnerThe discussion turns to what advisers should do. Matt argues that client education is an obligation, not an optional extra, given that investment fraud is the UK's leading deepfake vector. Abraham raises the possibility that the answer involves more analogue processes: physical meetings for high-stakes decisions, multi-person authorisation requirements above certain thresholds. The irony is not lost on the panel. AI may end up making in-person contact more valuable, not less.
